COVID-19
Humanitarian aspect of the Dutch corona policy
The Dutch government is very optimistic about epidemiological developments and therefore lacks the strength to limit the negative impact on health, society, education and the economy. I call on the Dutch government to reduce virus spread to protect vulnerable people.
Government measures in 2020 have limited SARS-CoV-2 infections to about 1 in 8 Dutch people. According to the statical office (CBS), this led to more than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths, with increased mortality in all age groups. The impact is often downplayed by pointing out that many victims suffered from comorbidities, such as high blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, obesity, immune deficiencies, and age. The virus also causes serious illness and a lot of morbidity outside these risk groups, such as brain infections, permanent damage in various organs and 'long covid’.
Vaccination reduces disease by about 90%, but protection diminishes after 6 months and the duration of immunity is unknown. With the four coronaviruses studied that have been followed up for longer periods, people become equally vulnerable to disease from 1 year after infection. Not everyone can be protected by vaccination: no corona vaccine is registered for young children, not all people can be vaccinated because of allergies, and vaccination is insufficient for some people. About 80% of adults are vaccinated, so vaccination will reduce the acute burden of disease by a factor of 4 instead of the maximum factor of 10. Vaccination hardly protects against brain infection and 'long covid’. The damage caused by 'lung covid' in adults and children is extensive and incompletely understood.
Some people do not want to be vaccinated for religious or personal reasons. This freedom is valuable, although it has limited consequences for the collective interest. I want to emphasize that this freedom also extends to people who have been misled by belief in fake news, regardless of everyone's duty to fight lies.
Coronaviruses rarely provide (permanent) sterilizing immunity, because the virus spreads without blood passage. Vaccination hardly protects against infection and herd immunity is not built up. In August 2021, the number of hospital and ICU admissions was 5 times higher than in the same period in 2020. Vaccination has less effect on disease than the measures from 2020. The product (¼ x 8 = 2) states that in 2021, despite vaccination, more people could become ill from COVID-19 than in 2020 due to the lockdown policy.
SARS-2 mainly spreads before people get symptoms, so only testing who has symptoms will be little effective against the virus spread. Complete containment to aim for zero infections is the standard strategy against virus epidemics with high and/or unknown mortality and/or morbidity. Aiming for zero disease was found to give the best outcome against COVID-19 for health, economy, and freedom. Test, trace, and isolate (TTI) is the least invasive way to effectively contain an epidemic, as we have been doing against tuberculosis for many years. TTI has been presented as the European strategy against COVID-19 and advised by the independent experts in Lessons learned to the House of Representatives.
The Netherlands has never considered TTI as a serious option. Three non-standard options were considered, from which maximum checking has been chosen. Head of the Dutch outbreak management team, Van Dissel talks about building up immunity through exposure, which translates into many infections and disease up to the maximum capacity of hospital and ICU. This is like the idea of herd immunity, known from viruses from the National Immunization Program that do provide sterilizing immunity. The World Health Organization (WHO) calls the pursuit of herd immunity through natural infections unscientific and unethical. I believe that this also applies to the pursuit of herd immunity through natural infection in children, allergic people and vaccine refusers. After all, it has not been shown for any of these groups that going through a corona infection is safe. That policy implies a maximum number of deaths, acute and long-term diseases, and many mutations with potentially new dangerous variants. Furthermore, the care deficit will increase, which means that other people will also be duped.
It is realistic that acute care will again be overloaded this winter if all measures are released this winter. With code black, another lockdown will have to follow. For education, social contacts and the economy, a balanced policy is more sustainable than alternating 'everything open' and lockdown. TTI offers the option of maximum freedom and minimum lockdown in a sustainable way. Vaccination protects, but not everyone, which is why the virus spread must also be reduced.
Everyone is important and worth protecting. That is why I request the government to take its task seriously. Continue vaccination and slow down the spread of the virus so that this epidemic has minimal impact on health, society, education, and economy. I call for a transparent debate with a wide range of independent experts, including those experienced in fighting virus epidemics. In this, scientific knowledge and opinions about the spread and disease can be combined with shared social norms and values.
12.09.2021
John Jacobs
Vaccination reduces disease by about 90%, but protection diminishes after 6 months and the duration of immunity is unknown. With the four coronaviruses studied that have been followed up for longer periods, people become equally vulnerable to disease from 1 year after infection. Not everyone can be protected by vaccination: no corona vaccine is registered for young children, not all people can be vaccinated because of allergies, and vaccination is insufficient for some people. About 80% of adults are vaccinated, so vaccination will reduce the acute burden of disease by a factor of 4 instead of the maximum factor of 10. Vaccination hardly protects against brain infection and 'long covid’. The damage caused by 'lung covid' in adults and children is extensive and incompletely understood.
Some people do not want to be vaccinated for religious or personal reasons. This freedom is valuable, although it has limited consequences for the collective interest. I want to emphasize that this freedom also extends to people who have been misled by belief in fake news, regardless of everyone's duty to fight lies.
Coronaviruses rarely provide (permanent) sterilizing immunity, because the virus spreads without blood passage. Vaccination hardly protects against infection and herd immunity is not built up. In August 2021, the number of hospital and ICU admissions was 5 times higher than in the same period in 2020. Vaccination has less effect on disease than the measures from 2020. The product (¼ x 8 = 2) states that in 2021, despite vaccination, more people could become ill from COVID-19 than in 2020 due to the lockdown policy.
SARS-2 mainly spreads before people get symptoms, so only testing who has symptoms will be little effective against the virus spread. Complete containment to aim for zero infections is the standard strategy against virus epidemics with high and/or unknown mortality and/or morbidity. Aiming for zero disease was found to give the best outcome against COVID-19 for health, economy, and freedom. Test, trace, and isolate (TTI) is the least invasive way to effectively contain an epidemic, as we have been doing against tuberculosis for many years. TTI has been presented as the European strategy against COVID-19 and advised by the independent experts in Lessons learned to the House of Representatives.
The Netherlands has never considered TTI as a serious option. Three non-standard options were considered, from which maximum checking has been chosen. Head of the Dutch outbreak management team, Van Dissel talks about building up immunity through exposure, which translates into many infections and disease up to the maximum capacity of hospital and ICU. This is like the idea of herd immunity, known from viruses from the National Immunization Program that do provide sterilizing immunity. The World Health Organization (WHO) calls the pursuit of herd immunity through natural infections unscientific and unethical. I believe that this also applies to the pursuit of herd immunity through natural infection in children, allergic people and vaccine refusers. After all, it has not been shown for any of these groups that going through a corona infection is safe. That policy implies a maximum number of deaths, acute and long-term diseases, and many mutations with potentially new dangerous variants. Furthermore, the care deficit will increase, which means that other people will also be duped.
It is realistic that acute care will again be overloaded this winter if all measures are released this winter. With code black, another lockdown will have to follow. For education, social contacts and the economy, a balanced policy is more sustainable than alternating 'everything open' and lockdown. TTI offers the option of maximum freedom and minimum lockdown in a sustainable way. Vaccination protects, but not everyone, which is why the virus spread must also be reduced.
Everyone is important and worth protecting. That is why I request the government to take its task seriously. Continue vaccination and slow down the spread of the virus so that this epidemic has minimal impact on health, society, education, and economy. I call for a transparent debate with a wide range of independent experts, including those experienced in fighting virus epidemics. In this, scientific knowledge and opinions about the spread and disease can be combined with shared social norms and values.
12.09.2021
John Jacobs
