COVID-19
Epidemic control of SARS-2. ADDENDUM
11.Immune escape
Coronaviruses are masters in escaping the immune response, using unique strategies. Coronaviruses are fragile RNA viruses with a lipid envelope, rendering them extremely sensitive to soap.[JJ] The reproduction of genuine RNA viruses involves the generation of double stranded RNA (dsRNA) but dsRNA is a very strong inducer of immune responses that would neutralized the virus.
Coronaviruses have evolved several strategies to escape the immune response. First they suppress innate immunity strongly, especially interferon responses.[JJ] The result of this is that cells do not signal that they are infected and allow coinfection with other viruses as well. The latter could also provide a reason why coronaviruses are the only ones with a proof-reading RNA polymerase. While it avoids RNA mutation, it preserves the immune escape that allows RNA recombination with other viruses. The escape from immunity at the infected cell level might be more valuable from an evolutionary point of view, than the ability to mutate rapidly like HIV, enteroviruses and other viruses.
Immunity against coronaviruses is short-lasting and only for a very short time sterilizing, and SARS-2 appears to fit this rule. Because of these virus properties, it is unlikely that herd immunity will ever arise. The non-sterilizing immunity allows the same virus to reinfect and spread through the same population. When protective immunity has waned, generally within a year, the virus causes diseases again. Immunity does not seem to build up, not even after several decades of yearly infections. Waning of immunity is probably caused by the same superantigen that causes immune suppression, serious disease and virus persistence.
Coronaviruses have evolved several strategies to escape the immune response. First they suppress innate immunity strongly, especially interferon responses.[JJ] The result of this is that cells do not signal that they are infected and allow coinfection with other viruses as well. The latter could also provide a reason why coronaviruses are the only ones with a proof-reading RNA polymerase. While it avoids RNA mutation, it preserves the immune escape that allows RNA recombination with other viruses. The escape from immunity at the infected cell level might be more valuable from an evolutionary point of view, than the ability to mutate rapidly like HIV, enteroviruses and other viruses.
Immunity against coronaviruses is short-lasting and only for a very short time sterilizing, and SARS-2 appears to fit this rule. Because of these virus properties, it is unlikely that herd immunity will ever arise. The non-sterilizing immunity allows the same virus to reinfect and spread through the same population. When protective immunity has waned, generally within a year, the virus causes diseases again. Immunity does not seem to build up, not even after several decades of yearly infections. Waning of immunity is probably caused by the same superantigen that causes immune suppression, serious disease and virus persistence.
12.Testing and tracing
Stopping or minimizing transmission is the heart of stopping an epidemic. When infected people transmit on average to less than one other the epidemic fades out, if it is more than one other, exponential grow will create an uncontrollable problem. The most easiest way to stop an epidemic is when the number of infections are very low and every case can be traced. Contact and source tracing will require much more energy when an epidemic yields large numbers of infections. Don’t let politicians fool you, there is no such thing than controllable epidemic, only zero-infection policies control an epidemic. Since infected humans transmit the virus, transmission can be stopped by avoiding infected humans to spread the virus, either by a lockdown prohibiting all interhuman contact or by testing and tracing to selectively quarantine infected people.[JJ]
Currently, many different test methods exist to rapidly or even instantly identify infectious people.[JJ] This technology facilitates us to control an epidemic with minimal impact on society by testing before contact.
Currently, many different test methods exist to rapidly or even instantly identify infectious people.[JJ] This technology facilitates us to control an epidemic with minimal impact on society by testing before contact.
13.Should we vaccinate children?
Proportionality is key word in whether or not to interfere, especially with vaccination. It might be hard to draw the line on numbers of death that warrant an intervention but a comparison with other vaccines could be made easily.[Wilder-Smith] COVID-19 is the leading cause of natural childhood death.[UT] This illustrates that COVID-19 is the most severe childhood disease to start vaccination in the last half century (Figure 7)
Figure 7. Number of deaths for preventable disease, prior to vaccination start
14. Excess mortality rates per country
Excess mortality rates differ strongly per country (Figure 8).
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Figure 8. Excess mortality per country. Countries are grouped based on regions, based on Figure 2. All countries shown with excess mortality data available beyond 01.07.2021.
Figure 9. New variants increase hospital submission for children.[T]
15. International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights
The international covenant on economic, social and cultural rights (1966) has been signed by most countries in the world.
Figure 10. Most countries have signed this covenant to protect human rights
John. J.L. Jacobs. 29.12.2021
